Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 1.007745 1.147811 1.296300 1.465023 1.650988 1.849271 2.076235
2025-02-09 0.779870 0.965788 1.175854 1.429175 1.724684 2.056800 2.456489
2025-02-16 0.614756 0.826611 1.081198 1.405858 1.804753 2.274612 2.865303
2025-02-23 0.470418 0.689302 0.969511 1.347350 1.835610 2.436957 3.224282
2025-03-02 0.349917 0.561835 0.851653 1.265228 1.827018 2.549408 3.532337
2025-03-09 0.276602 0.485570 0.790015 1.247983 1.898919 2.768638 3.992471
2025-03-16 0.214831 0.414145 0.724046 1.215488 1.945646 2.957712 4.427685
2025-03-23 0.179690 0.377689 0.704239 1.246775 2.084287 3.281877 5.067968
2025-03-30 0.136956 0.318523 0.638904 1.199623 2.102172 3.436678 5.483561
2025-04-06 0.107822 0.276996 0.595547 1.180887 2.159863 3.651646 5.997461
2025-04-13 0.083288 0.237838 0.549175 1.150165 2.194221 3.832615 6.471512
2025-04-20 0.069057 0.216850 0.532751 1.168844 2.309706 4.144102 7.157268
2025-04-27 0.056560 0.196931 0.516474 1.188732 2.434345 4.486813 7.924767
2025-05-04 0.045132 0.175745 0.493551 1.193084 2.532682 4.794700 8.657682
2025-05-11 0.036075 0.157566 0.473511 1.200290 2.636702 5.118938 9.435438
2025-05-18 0.026929 0.134800 0.437699 1.169863 2.668207 5.323462 10.031807
2025-05-25 0.018862 0.110866 0.392764 1.112505 2.642009 5.426243 10.466011
2025-06-01 0.014520 0.098118 0.373694 1.109407 2.720701 5.716621 11.227522
2025-06-08 0.010703 0.084735 0.349139 1.089486 2.763045 5.943835 11.892351
2025-06-15 0.008909 0.079688 0.348020 1.125903 2.924648 6.397043 12.966941
2025-06-22 0.006200 0.067040 0.319243 1.088406 2.925959 6.552782 13.528613
2025-06-29 0.004519 0.058522 0.301298 1.075689 2.978940 6.807657 14.275704
2025-07-06 0.003139 0.050000 0.280253 1.050741 3.001633 7.004585 14.926034